{"markets":[{"market_id":"2589813","label":"Fed +25bps Oct 2026","question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?","score":-55,"score_before":-35,"shift":-20,"catalyst":"Recent weak US jobs data and dovish comments from Fed officials like Williams and Jefferson point to a likely pause rather than another 25bp rate hike at the late October 2026 FOMC meeting amid still-elevated inflation.","volume_signal":"rising","polymarket_yes_price":0.165,"scored_at":"2026-10-04T20:30:00+00:00","prior_scored_at":"2026-10-03T18:34:00+00:00","stale":true,"source":"polymarket"},{"market_id":"4641065","label":"US-Iran ceasefire through Oct 31","question":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","score":-35,"score_before":-35,"shift":0,"catalyst":"Ongoing US-Iran conflict with stalled talks, no active ceasefire, and recent proposals rejected as of early October 2026.","volume_signal":"flat","polymarket_yes_price":0.725,"scored_at":"2026-10-04T20:30:00+00:00","prior_scored_at":"2026-10-03T18:34:00+00:00","stale":true,"source":"polymarket"},{"market_id":"562828","label":"Balance of Power: D Senate, D House","question":"2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House","score":15,"score_before":35,"shift":-20,"catalyst":"Democrats are widely expected to win the House and have a strong chance at the Senate in the 2026 midterms, leaving Trump with a divided Congress.","volume_signal":"flat","polymarket_yes_price":0.665,"scored_at":"2026-10-04T20:30:00+00:00","prior_scored_at":"2026-10-03T18:34:00+00:00","stale":true,"source":"polymarket"},{"market_id":"2100981","label":"Likud most seats, Israel 2026","question":"Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?","score":-25,"score_before":-25,"shift":0,"catalyst":"Recent Israeli polls show Likud and Yashar nearly tied at around 21-22 seats each ahead of the October 27 election, with neither bloc reaching a majority.","volume_signal":"flat","polymarket_yes_price":0.54,"scored_at":"2026-10-04T20:30:00+00:00","prior_scored_at":"2026-10-03T18:34:00+00:00","stale":true,"source":"polymarket"}],"count":4,"as_of":"2026-10-04T20:30:00+00:00","note":"Free daily snapshot from our tracking run (one X-sentiment score per market per day, scored by Grok from recent X posts). For a fresh score on any Polymarket or Kalshi question, use the paid /sentiment or /brief routes.","data_origin":"remote"}